Mobley Family

Jack McGill (top left), John R. McGill, Martha (Mobley) McGill (bottom left) and Pauline (McGill) Armstrong, photograph ca. 1938, Ontario, OR
 



Analysis of L1314 & L1315 SNPs

SUMMARY OF SNPs - April, 2013

Classification of SNP: Very small branch (probably private or near private). Son of DF13. L1315 is currently equivalent of L1314 (only one submission). This analysis is speculative in nature since the L1314 fingerprint is based on only one positive test and only one untested match was found above 70 %.

Speculative preliminary estimated breadth of SNP: 10 = 2 x 95 % (11 of 11) + 0 x 90 % (10 of 11) + 0 x 85 % (9 of 11) + 0 x 80 % (8 of 11) + 4 x 40 % (7 of 11) + 63 x 10 % (6 of 11).

Dominant Surnames (positive): Only Collins.

Year that SNPs were discovered: December, 2012.

Source of SNP: FTDNA WTY test, FTDNA ID 173877, Y-Search ID 3PKD9, Surname Collins.

Number of Positive Tests (67 markers): Only one known (original WTY test).

Number of Broad Negative Tests (67 markers): Only four known.

Number of Negative Tests within Fingerprints (higher than 70 %): None.

Pending Tests (within Fingerprint): Probably one or two submissions.

 

TRENDS OF TESTING CANDIDATES

 

L1314 Fingerprint

Note that the number of known testing candidates does not appear to be similar to most L21 SNPs where the number of testing candidates declines down to 70 % matches, remains low between 50 and 70 % and then sees a sharp rise as non-L1314 submissions dominate the under 50 % matches. From the outset, only two submissions were found that above 70 % and both were exact matches with the same surname. This implies a much more narrow scope SNP due to the significant isolation of the current L1314 fingerprint. It is assumed that the L1314 will probably need significant fine tuning in the future or the L1314 may be a private SNP that is isoloated to only Collins submissions.

 

Fingerprint
Match
Percentage
Fingerprint
Match
Known Number of Testing Candidates

Total
Tested

Percent
Tested

Total
Positive
Percent
Positive
11 of 11
100
2
1
50.0
1
100
10 of 11
100
0
0
NA
NA
NA
9 of 11
90
0
0
NA
NA
NA
8 of 11
80
0
0
NA
NA
NA
7 of 11
70
4
0
0
NA
NA
6 of 11
60
63
0
0
NA
NA

 

ISOGG Status - Prove relationship of L1314 to other L21 SNPs

 

Requirements of proving L1314 position on the ISOGG haplotree have not been met. Eleven additional ISOGG sons of DF13 need to test negative for L1314.

 

SNP
Number
FTDNA Submission Number
(or WTY GRC number)

Project Name

Test Results
Prove ISOGG father of L1314
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
DF13+
Prove L1314 is not redundant of father
L1314-
240201
WTY Project
DF13+
Eliminate possible fathers of L1314
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
DF49-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
L513-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
L96-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
L144-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
Z255-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
Z253-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
DF21-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
L371-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
DF41-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
L555-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
L1335-
L1314+
173877
WTY Project
CTS4466-
Eliminate possible sons of L1314
L1314-
Not tested
NA
DF49?
L1314-
Not tested
NA
L513?
L1314-
Not tested
NA
L96?
L1314-
Not tested
NA
L144?
L1314-
Not tested
NA
Z255?
L1314-
Not tested
NA
Z253?
L1314-
Not tested
NA
DF21?
L1314-
Not tested
NA
L371?
L1314-
240201
L21 Project
DF41+
L1314-
Not tested
NA
L555?
L1314-
Not tested
NA
L1335?
L1314-
Not tested
NA
CTS4466?
Prove redundant SNPs of L1314
NA
173877
WTY Project
L1315+
Prove SNPs that are sons of L1314
NA
None known
NA
NA

 

ISOGG Status - Prove genetic and surname diversity of L1314

L1312 does not satisfies either the 15 % genetic diversity requirement or the surname diversity requirement for inclusion on the ISOGG haplotree. Two submissions of L1314 must have at least a genetic distance of 10 (15 % x 67 markers = 10). L1314 may have a difficult time satisfying the genetic distance requirement as this Y-SNP could be a private Y-SNP.

 

SNP
Number
FTDNA Submission Number
(or WTY GRC number)

Project Name

Test Results
Prove 15 % Diversity requirement
L1312+
N45540
L21 Project
Base
L1312+
No second positive submission
NA
GD = ?
Prove Surname diversity requirement
L1312+
N45540 (Collins)
L21 Project
Collins
L1312+
No second surname found
NA
NA

 

DNA FINGERPRINT & SIGNATURES

Note: The L1314 fingerprint is preliminary in nature and may require fine tuning as additional testing reveals the true scope of L1314.

 

L1314 Fingerprint (L21 Off Modal Mutations):

Markers 1 to 37: 393 >= 14, 458 <= 16, 459b <= 9, 464c <= 16, 464d >= 18, 460 <= 10 H4 <= 10 and 576 >= 19 (8 mutations).

Markers 38 to 67: 531 >= 12, 444 >= 13 and 572 <= 10 (3 mutations).

Note: 393 >= 14, 531 >= 12 and 572 <= 10 could be key markers for the L1314. These marker values are found in very few submissions and may be required to test positive for L1314.

 

L1314 Signatures (R-L21 Plus): None found.

Markers 1 to 37: To be determined (? mutations).

Markers 38 to 67: To be determined (? mutations).

 

TESTING CANDIDATES

All testing candidates are found in the DNA Results pull-down for L1314. It is only recommend to test for submissions found in this spreadsheet. In general, the higher in the spreadsheet, the higher the probability of testing positive.

1) The second known Collins submission will surely test positive for L1314 since it is a 67 marker match for the WTY Collins submission that discovered L1314. Unfortunately, the Collins DNA Surname project is only available via World Family Net which is very laborious to extract with accuracy and provides no Y-SNP report. It is highly recommended that those interested in analyzing L1314 lobby the FTDNA admin of the Collins surname project to make accessible both the FTDNA Y-STR report and the FTDNA Y-SNP report, so that the critical Collins submissions can be included in the analysis. The WTY submission 173877 appears to be part of the Haplogroup R1b, Lineage V grouping. There are several 37 marker submissions that have genetic diversity from WTY submission 173877 that could be upgraded to 67 markers for complete analysis (diversity at 67 markers is required for ISOGG qualification and Y-SNP prediction). After inspection of 37 marker submissions, it appears that 464c, 460 and 576 may not part of the L1314 fingerprint and may be post L1314 creation mutations (a branch formed after the L1314 SNP mutated). Upgrading the 37 marker submissions, getting them to join the L21 Plus project and testing them for L1314 should be the highest priority. There also could be other L1314 matches within the Collins project and making the project accessible could reveal other good L1314 testing candidates.

2) Since the current L1314 fingerprint has three key markers (393, 531 and 572) that may be required to test positive for L1314, it is highly recommended that testing submissions that satisfy one or two of these marker values should be the second highest priority. At higher fingerprint matches and lower genetic distance, only three submissions have two markers that satisfy this requirement: N72991, 164301 and 107743. There are many more submissions that only match one marker value that are worthy of testing until the true scope is better understood. Candidates that match at least one marker with higher fingerprint and lower genetic distance are good testing candidates as well.

3) Any submissions above 50 % are reasonable testing candidates but should be considered very speculative in nature since the true L1314 fingerprint is not known. Six of eleven matches have around a 10 % chance of testing positive currently, but the odds for individual submissions will change dramatically with the fine tuning of the L1314 fingerprint.